King Faisal 0–0 Hearts of Oak: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hearts of Oak

1/12/2023

Premier League · Round 12Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

King Faisal39%

×Draw32%

Hearts of Oak29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchHearts of Oak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.82

King Faisal

1.00

Hearts of Oak

0.82

King Faisal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 108 away

1.15

creates per match

0.72

0.93

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

King Faisal

1.15

Hearts of Oak

0.72

allows per match

King Faisal

0.93

Hearts of Oak

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Hearts of Oak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Hearts of Oak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

71%

King Faisal or Hearts of Oak

68%

Draw or Hearts of Oak

61%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

15%

Hearts of Oak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

63%

King Faisal 2+ goals

26%

King Faisal 3+ goals

8%

Hearts of Oak 1+ goals

56%

Hearts of Oak 2+ goals

20%

Hearts of Oak 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

57%

Hearts of Oak (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Hearts of Oak away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.86 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Hearts of Oak defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hearts of Oak attack 0.72 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

King Faisal scores more

39%

level

32%

Hearts of Oak scores more

29%

King Faisal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Z. Yakubu

64'

K. Obeng Junior← K. Obeng Junior

64'

L. Mtange← L. Mtange

79'

Y. Ouatching← Y. Ouatching

80'

Y. Ouatching

87'

A. Tetteh← A. Tetteh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff