King Faisal 1–3 Future Stars: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Future Stars

12/21/2025

Division One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal54%

×Draw27%

Future Stars19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchFuture Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.73

King Faisal

1.44

Future Stars

0.73

King Faisal creates 97% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.60

0.87

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

King Faisal

1.40

Future Stars

0.60

allows per match

King Faisal

0.87

Future Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Future Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Future Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

81%

King Faisal or Future Stars

73%

Draw or Future Stars

46%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

27%

Future Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

76%

King Faisal 2+ goals

42%

King Faisal 3+ goals

18%

Future Stars 1+ goals

52%

Future Stars 2+ goals

17%

Future Stars 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

74%

Future Stars (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Future Stars away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Future Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Future Stars attack 0.60 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

King Faisal scores more

54%

level

27%

Future Stars scores more

19%

King Faisal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff