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King Faisal vs Eleven Wise — Division One League 2025

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Eleven Wise
Eleven Wise
11/23/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal70%
×Draw21%
Eleven Wise9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.83
Eleven Wise
0.50

King Faisal creates 266% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.40
Eleven Wise
0.13

allows per match

King Faisal
0.87
Eleven Wise
2.27

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Eleven Wise+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Eleven Wise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
91%
King Faisal or Eleven Wise
79%
Draw or Eleven Wise
30%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
42%
Eleven Wise wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
84%
King Faisal 2+ goals
54%
King Faisal 3+ goals
28%
Eleven Wise 1+ goals
39%
Eleven Wise 2+ goals
9%
Eleven Wise 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
88%
Eleven Wise (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Eleven Wise away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Eleven Wise defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.83

Eleven Wise attack 0.13 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

King Faisal scores more
70%
level
21%
Eleven Wise scores more
9%

King Faisal at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Eleven Wise

King Faisal beat Eleven Wise 2-0 in Division One League on November 23, 2025.