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King Faisal vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
1 – 1
Dreams
Dreams
K. Frimpong 31'
Y. Wadudu 66' (OG)
1/1/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

King Faisal45%
×Draw30%
Dreams25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.22
Dreams
0.84

King Faisal creates 45% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 110 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.17
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

King Faisal
0.91
Dreams
1.27

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
75%
King Faisal or Dreams
70%
Draw or Dreams
55%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
20%
Dreams wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
70%
King Faisal 2+ goals
34%
King Faisal 3+ goals
12%
Dreams 1+ goals
57%
Dreams 2+ goals
21%
Dreams 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
64%
Dreams (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 58 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.17 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dreams attack 0.77 + King Faisal defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

King Faisal scores more
45%
level
30%
Dreams scores more
25%

King Faisal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
K. Frimpong
66'
Y. WaduduOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Dreams

King Faisal and Dreams drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 1, 2021.

Goals: K. Frimpong (31'), Y. Wadudu (66' o.g.).

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.