Dreams 2–0 King Faisal: Result & Stats | Cup

Dreams

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

King Faisal

S. Alhassan 70'

A. Aziz Issah 20'

6/18/2023

Cup · FinalDr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dreams51%

×Draw22%

King Faisal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DreamsExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.38

Dreams

1.95

King Faisal

1.38

Dreams creates 41% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

2.00

0.75

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Dreams

2.50

King Faisal

2.00

allows per match

Dreams

0.75

King Faisal

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dreams+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dreams ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Dreams or draw

73%

Dreams or King Faisal

78%

Draw or King Faisal

49%

Winning margin

Dreams wins by 2+

29%

King Faisal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dreams 1+ goals

86%

Dreams 2+ goals

58%

Dreams 3+ goals

31%

King Faisal 1+ goals

75%

King Faisal 2+ goals

40%

King Faisal 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dreams (draw refunded)

65%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dreams at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

King Faisal away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dreams attack 2.50 + King Faisal defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.95

King Faisal attack 2.00 + Dreams defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dreams scores more

51%

level

22%

King Faisal scores more

27%

Dreams at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dreams will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

A. Aziz Issah

70'

S. Alhassan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff