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King Faisal vs Ashanti Gold — Division One League 2025

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ashanti Gold
Ashanti Gold
5/17/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal38%
×Draw30%
Ashanti Gold32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.10
Ashanti Gold
1.00

King Faisal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.40
Ashanti Gold
1.13

allows per match

King Faisal
0.87
Ashanti Gold
0.80

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Ashanti Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Ashanti Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
68%
King Faisal or Ashanti Gold
70%
Draw or Ashanti Gold
62%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
15%
Ashanti Gold wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
67%
King Faisal 2+ goals
30%
King Faisal 3+ goals
10%
Ashanti Gold 1+ goals
63%
Ashanti Gold 2+ goals
26%
Ashanti Gold 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
54%
Ashanti Gold (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ashanti Gold away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Ashanti Gold defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ashanti Gold attack 1.13 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

King Faisal scores more
38%
level
30%
Ashanti Gold scores more
32%

King Faisal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: King Faisal 0–1 Ashanti Gold

Ashanti Gold beat King Faisal 1-0 in Division One League on May 17, 2026.