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King Faisal vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
0 – 1
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
N. Keita 87'
3/10/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

King Faisal38%
×Draw32%
Asante Kotoko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.02
Asante Kotoko
0.89

King Faisal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.18
Asante Kotoko
0.85

allows per match

King Faisal
0.92
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
69%
King Faisal or Asante Kotoko
68%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
62%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
15%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
64%
King Faisal 2+ goals
27%
King Faisal 3+ goals
8%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
59%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
22%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
55%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.87 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Asante Kotoko attack 0.85 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

King Faisal scores more
38%
level
32%
Asante Kotoko scores more
31%

King Faisal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
A. Okrah← F. Gama
45'
K. A. Frimpong← K. A. Frimpong
46'
K. Bwoakyi← K. Bwoakyi
76'
P. Asmah← N. Keita
80'
F. Manu← F. Manu
85'
R. Wiafe
87'
N. Keita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Asante Kotoko

Asante Kotoko beat King Faisal 1-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2021.

Goals: N. Keita (87').

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.