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Asante Kotoko vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
FT
1 – 1
King Faisal
King Faisal
F. A. Kumi 84'
Z. Ibrahim 15'
7/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32Len Clay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Asante Kotoko59%
×Draw25%
King Faisal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asante Kotoko
1.58
King Faisal
0.69

Asante Kotoko creates 129% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 58 away

creates per match

Asante Kotoko
1.47
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Asante Kotoko
0.65
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw
84%
Asante Kotoko or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
41%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
32%
King Faisal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
79%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
47%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
21%
King Faisal 1+ goals
50%
King Faisal 2+ goals
15%
King Faisal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
78%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more
59%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
16%

Asante Kotoko at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Z. Ibrahim
30'
P. B. Awuah
36'
A. Okrah← G. Asiamah
46'
K. A. Frimpong← K. A. Frimpong
56'
E. Adomako← F. A. Kumi
62'
E. Donkor← E. Donkor
64'
A. K. Appau
84'
F. A. Kumi
87'
F. Osei← F. Osei

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Asante Kotoko 1–1 King Faisal

Asante Kotoko and King Faisal drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 3, 2021.

Goals: Z. Ibrahim (15'), F. A. Kumi (84').

The match was played at Len Clay Stadium in Obuasi.