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Kindermann W vs Vitória PE W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Kindermann W
Kindermann W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitória PE W
Vitória PE W
7/14/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves (Caçador, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kindermann W86%
×Draw10%
Vitória PE W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindermann W
3.25
Vitória PE W
0.65

Kindermann W creates 400% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kindermann W
1.88
Vitória PE W
0.13

allows per match

Kindermann W
1.16
Vitória PE W
4.63

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par
Vitória PE W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

Vitória PE W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw
95%
Kindermann W or Vitória PE W
90%
Draw or Vitória PE W
14%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+
69%
Vitória PE W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals
96%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
83%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
61%
Vitória PE W 1+ goals
48%
Vitória PE W 2+ goals
14%
Vitória PE W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)
95%
Vitória PE W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Vitória PE W away — creates 0.13, concedes 4.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + Vitória PE W defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.25

Vitória PE W attack 0.13 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Kindermann W scores more
86%
level
10%
Vitória PE W scores more
5%

Kindermann W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kindermann W vs Vitória PE W

Kindermann W beat Vitória PE W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves (Caçador, Santa Catarina).