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Kindermann W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Kindermann W
Kindermann W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
7/18/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP A - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kindermann W50%
×Draw24%
Sao Jose W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindermann W
1.65
Sao Jose W
1.10

Kindermann W creates 50% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kindermann W
1.88
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Kindermann W
1.16
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw
75%
Kindermann W or Sao Jose W
76%
Draw or Sao Jose W
50%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+
27%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals
81%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
49%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
23%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
67%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
30%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)
66%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kindermann W scores more
50%
level
24%
Sao Jose W scores more
25%

Kindermann W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Kindermann W 2–0 Sao Jose W

Kindermann W beat Sao Jose W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 18, 2018.