Kindermann W 1–0 Ponte Preta W: Result & Stats

Kindermann W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta W

7/17/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves (Caçador, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kindermann W65%

×Draw20%

Ponte Preta W15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kindermann WExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.88

Kindermann W

2.10

Ponte Preta W

0.88

Kindermann W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

1.88

creates per match

0.59

1.16

allows per match

2.32

creates per match

Kindermann W

1.88

Ponte Preta W

0.59

allows per match

Kindermann W

1.16

Ponte Preta W

2.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

Ponte Preta W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw

85%

Kindermann W or Ponte Preta W

80%

Draw or Ponte Preta W

35%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+

41%

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals

88%

Kindermann W 2+ goals

62%

Kindermann W 3+ goals

35%

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals

59%

Ponte Preta W 2+ goals

22%

Ponte Preta W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)

82%

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kindermann W scores more

65%

level

20%

Ponte Preta W scores more

15%

Kindermann W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff