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Kindermann W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Kindermann W
Kindermann W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gremio Osasco Audax W
Gremio Osasco Audax W
5/15/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves (Caçador, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kindermann W66%
×Draw19%
Gremio Osasco Audax W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindermann W
2.28
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.99

Kindermann W creates 130% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kindermann W
1.88
Gremio Osasco Audax W
0.82

allows per match

Kindermann W
1.16
Gremio Osasco Audax W
2.68

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par
Gremio Osasco Audax W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

Gremio Osasco Audax W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw
85%
Kindermann W or Gremio Osasco Audax W
81%
Draw or Gremio Osasco Audax W
34%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+
43%
Gremio Osasco Audax W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals
90%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
66%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
39%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 1+ goals
63%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 2+ goals
26%
Gremio Osasco Audax W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)
81%
Gremio Osasco Audax W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Gremio Osasco Audax W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + Gremio Osasco Audax W defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.28

Gremio Osasco Audax W attack 0.82 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kindermann W scores more
66%
level
19%
Gremio Osasco Audax W scores more
15%

Kindermann W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kindermann W vs Gremio Osasco Audax W

Kindermann W beat Gremio Osasco Audax W 3-2 in Brasileiro Women on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Carlos Alberto Costa Neves (Caçador, Santa Catarina).