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Kindermann W vs Athletico Paranaense W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Kindermann W
Kindermann W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Athletico Paranaense W
Athletico Paranaense W
6/3/2023Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Salézio Kindermann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kindermann W62%
×Draw21%
Athletico Paranaense W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindermann W
2.00
Athletico Paranaense W
0.95

Kindermann W creates 111% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kindermann W
1.88
Athletico Paranaense W
0.75

allows per match

Kindermann W
1.16
Athletico Paranaense W
2.13

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par
Athletico Paranaense W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

Athletico Paranaense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw
83%
Kindermann W or Athletico Paranaense W
79%
Draw or Athletico Paranaense W
38%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+
37%
Athletico Paranaense W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals
86%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
59%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
32%
Athletico Paranaense W 1+ goals
61%
Athletico Paranaense W 2+ goals
25%
Athletico Paranaense W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)
78%
Athletico Paranaense W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

Athletico Paranaense W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + Athletico Paranaense W defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.00

Athletico Paranaense W attack 0.75 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kindermann W scores more
62%
level
21%
Athletico Paranaense W scores more
17%

Kindermann W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Kindermann W 4–0 Athletico Paranaense W

Kindermann W beat Athletico Paranaense W 4-0 in Brasileiro Women on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Salézio Kindermann in Caçador, Santa Catarina.