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Kindermann W vs America Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Kindermann W
Kindermann W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
America Mineiro W
America Mineiro W
3/27/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Salézio Kindermann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kindermann W55%
×Draw22%
America Mineiro W23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindermann W
1.96
America Mineiro W
1.19

Kindermann W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kindermann W
1.88
America Mineiro W
1.23

allows per match

Kindermann W
1.16
America Mineiro W
2.05

finishing

Kindermann W+0.00on par
America Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindermann W ↓

America Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kindermann W or draw
77%
Kindermann W or America Mineiro W
78%
Draw or America Mineiro W
45%

Winning margin

Kindermann W wins by 2+
32%
America Mineiro W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kindermann W 1+ goals
86%
Kindermann W 2+ goals
58%
Kindermann W 3+ goals
31%
America Mineiro W 1+ goals
70%
America Mineiro W 2+ goals
33%
America Mineiro W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kindermann W (draw refunded)
71%
America Mineiro W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindermann W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

America Mineiro W away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindermann W attack 1.88 + America Mineiro W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.96

America Mineiro W attack 1.23 + Kindermann W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kindermann W scores more
55%
level
22%
America Mineiro W scores more
23%

Kindermann W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kindermann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kindermann W vs America Mineiro W

America Mineiro W beat Kindermann W 3-1 in Brasileiro Women on March 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Salézio Kindermann in Caçador, Santa Catarina.