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Kindberg-Mürzhofen vs Tillmitsch — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tillmitsch
Tillmitsch
5/16/2025Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 27Stadion Kindbergdörfl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen36%
×Draw22%
Tillmitsch42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.72
Tillmitsch
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.07
Tillmitsch
1.82

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.93
Tillmitsch
1.38

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par
Tillmitsch+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

Tillmitsch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw
58%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen or Tillmitsch
78%
Draw or Tillmitsch
64%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+
18%
Tillmitsch wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals
82%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals
51%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals
25%
Tillmitsch 1+ goals
85%
Tillmitsch 2+ goals
56%
Tillmitsch 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)
46%
Tillmitsch (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Tillmitsch away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + Tillmitsch defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.72

Tillmitsch attack 1.82 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more
36%
level
22%
Tillmitsch scores more
42%

Tillmitsch at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tillmitsch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kindberg-Mürzhofen vs Tillmitsch

Kindberg-Mürzhofen and Tillmitsch drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kindbergdörfl in Kindberg.