Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3–2 Lafnitz II: Result & Stats

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

FT

3 – 2

Lafnitz II

8/16/2024

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 3Nachwuchszentrum Wartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen40%

×Draw21%

Lafnitz II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kindberg-MürzhofenExpected goals in this matchLafnitz II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.89

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.94

Lafnitz II

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 75 away

2.07

creates per match

1.84

1.93

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

2.07

Lafnitz II

1.84

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.93

Lafnitz II

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

Lafnitz II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

Lafnitz II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw

62%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or Lafnitz II

79%

Draw or Lafnitz II

60%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+

22%

Lafnitz II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals

86%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals

58%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals

30%

Lafnitz II 1+ goals

85%

Lafnitz II 2+ goals

56%

Lafnitz II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)

51%

Lafnitz II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Lafnitz II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + Lafnitz II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.94

Lafnitz II attack 1.84 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more

40%

level

21%

Lafnitz II scores more

38%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kindberg-Mürzhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff