Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2–0 Köflach: Result & Stats

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

FT

2 – 0

Köflach

3/14/2025

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 17Nachwuchszentrum Wartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen45%

×Draw22%

Köflach33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kindberg-MürzhofenExpected goals in this matchKöflach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.60

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.92

Köflach

1.60

Kindberg-Mürzhofen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

2.07

creates per match

1.28

1.93

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

2.07

Köflach

1.28

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.93

Köflach

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

Köflach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

Köflach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw

67%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or Köflach

78%

Draw or Köflach

55%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+

25%

Köflach wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals

85%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals

57%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals

30%

Köflach 1+ goals

80%

Köflach 2+ goals

47%

Köflach 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)

58%

Köflach (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Köflach away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + Köflach defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

Köflach attack 1.28 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more

45%

level

22%

Köflach scores more

33%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kindberg-Mürzhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff