Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1–3 Ilz: Result & Stats

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Ilz

5/30/2025

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 29Stadion Kindbergdörfl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen42%

×Draw21%

Ilz36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kindberg-MürzhofenExpected goals in this matchIlz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.81

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.96

Ilz

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 88 away

2.07

creates per match

1.69

1.93

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

2.07

Ilz

1.69

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.93

Ilz

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

Ilz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw

64%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or Ilz

79%

Draw or Ilz

58%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+

23%

Ilz wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals

86%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals

58%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals

31%

Ilz 1+ goals

84%

Ilz 2+ goals

54%

Ilz 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)

54%

Ilz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ilz attack 1.69 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more

42%

level

21%

Ilz scores more

36%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kindberg-Mürzhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff