Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2–2 FSC Hochegger Dächer

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FSC Hochegger Dächer

3/28/2025

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 19Nachwuchszentrum Wartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen38%

×Draw21%

FSC Hochegger Dächer41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kindberg-MürzhofenExpected goals in this matchFSC Hochegger Dächer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.98

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.92

FSC Hochegger Dächer

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

2.07

creates per match

2.02

1.93

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

2.07

FSC Hochegger Dächer

2.02

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen

1.93

FSC Hochegger Dächer

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par

FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

FSC Hochegger Dächer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw

59%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or FSC Hochegger Dächer

79%

Draw or FSC Hochegger Dächer

62%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+

20%

FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals

85%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals

57%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals

30%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals

86%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals

59%

FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)

49%

FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.77 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.92

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.02 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more

38%

level

21%

FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more

41%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff