Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kindberg-Mürzhofen vs Bad Waltersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
Kindberg-Mürzhofen
FT
3 – 3
Bad Waltersdorf
Bad Waltersdorf
9/27/2024Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 9Nachwuchszentrum Wartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kindberg-Mürzhofen46%
×Draw21%
Bad Waltersdorf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.05
Bad Waltersdorf
1.70

Kindberg-Mürzhofen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
2.07
Bad Waltersdorf
1.47

allows per match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen
1.93
Bad Waltersdorf
2.03

finishing

Kindberg-Mürzhofen+0.00on par
Bad Waltersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kindberg-Mürzhofen ↓

Bad Waltersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kindberg-Mürzhofen or draw
67%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen or Bad Waltersdorf
79%
Draw or Bad Waltersdorf
54%

Winning margin

Kindberg-Mürzhofen wins by 2+
26%
Bad Waltersdorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kindberg-Mürzhofen 1+ goals
87%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 2+ goals
61%
Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3+ goals
33%
Bad Waltersdorf 1+ goals
82%
Bad Waltersdorf 2+ goals
51%
Bad Waltersdorf 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kindberg-Mürzhofen (draw refunded)
59%
Bad Waltersdorf (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Bad Waltersdorf away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kindberg-Mürzhofen attack 2.07 + Bad Waltersdorf defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.05

Bad Waltersdorf attack 1.47 + Kindberg-Mürzhofen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kindberg-Mürzhofen scores more
46%
level
21%
Bad Waltersdorf scores more
33%

Kindberg-Mürzhofen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kindberg-Mürzhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: Kindberg-Mürzhofen 3–3 Bad Waltersdorf

Kindberg-Mürzhofen and Bad Waltersdorf drew 3-3 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum Wartberg in Barbara im Mürztal.