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Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Sansinena — Torneo Federal A 2018

Kimberley Mar del Plata
Kimberley Mar del Plata
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sansinena
Sansinena
5/11/2024Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group 1 - 8Estadio José Antonio Valle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kimberley Mar del Plata47%
×Draw31%
Sansinena22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kimberley Mar del Plata
1.14
Sansinena
0.68

Kimberley Mar del Plata creates 68% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 85 away

creates per match

Kimberley Mar del Plata
1.00
Sansinena
0.76

allows per match

Kimberley Mar del Plata
0.59
Sansinena
1.28

finishing

Kimberley Mar del Plata+0.00on par
Sansinena+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kimberley Mar del Plata ↓

Sansinena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kimberley Mar del Plata or draw
78%
Kimberley Mar del Plata or Sansinena
69%
Draw or Sansinena
53%

Winning margin

Kimberley Mar del Plata wins by 2+
20%
Sansinena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kimberley Mar del Plata 1+ goals
68%
Kimberley Mar del Plata 2+ goals
32%
Kimberley Mar del Plata 3+ goals
11%
Sansinena 1+ goals
49%
Sansinena 2+ goals
15%
Sansinena 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kimberley Mar del Plata (draw refunded)
68%
Sansinena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kimberley Mar del Plata at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.59 · 37 matches

Sansinena away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kimberley Mar del Plata attack 1.00 + Sansinena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sansinena attack 0.76 + Kimberley Mar del Plata defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kimberley Mar del Plata scores more
47%
level
31%
Sansinena scores more
22%

Kimberley Mar del Plata at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kimberley Mar del Plata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Kimberley Mar del Plata 1–1 Sansinena

Kimberley Mar del Plata and Sansinena drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio José Antonio Valle in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.