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Kilwinning Rangers vs Tranent Juniors — FA Cup 2019

Kilwinning Rangers
Kilwinning Rangers
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Tranent Juniors
Tranent Juniors
9/17/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundKilwinning Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kilwinning Rangers60%
×Draw19%
Tranent Juniors21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilwinning Rangers
2.46
Tranent Juniors
1.42

Kilwinning Rangers creates 73% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kilwinning Rangers
2.20
Tranent Juniors
1.43

allows per match

Kilwinning Rangers
1.40
Tranent Juniors
2.71

finishing

Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par
Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilwinning Rangers ↓

Tranent Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kilwinning Rangers or draw
79%
Kilwinning Rangers or Tranent Juniors
81%
Draw or Tranent Juniors
40%

Winning margin

Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+
39%
Tranent Juniors wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals
91%
Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals
70%
Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals
44%
Tranent Juniors 1+ goals
76%
Tranent Juniors 2+ goals
41%
Tranent Juniors 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)
74%
Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilwinning Rangers at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Tranent Juniors away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.20 + Tranent Juniors defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.46

Tranent Juniors attack 1.43 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kilwinning Rangers scores more
60%
level
19%
Tranent Juniors scores more
21%

Kilwinning Rangers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kilwinning Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Kilwinning Rangers 4–2 Tranent Juniors

Kilwinning Rangers beat Tranent Juniors 4-2 in FA Cup on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Kilwinning Sports Club in Kilwinning.