Kilwinning Rangers 4–0 Glasgow University

Kilwinning Rangers

4 – 0

Glasgow University

9/2/2023

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundKilwinning Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kilwinning Rangers80%

×Draw12%

Glasgow University8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilwinning RangersExpected goals in this matchGlasgow University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.19

0.95

Kilwinning Rangers

3.19

Glasgow University

0.95

Kilwinning Rangers creates 236% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.20

creates per match

0.50

1.40

allows per match

4.17

creates per match

Kilwinning Rangers

2.20

Glasgow University

0.50

allows per match

Kilwinning Rangers

1.40

Glasgow University

4.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Glasgow University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilwinning Rangers ↓

Glasgow University →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–05%

1–15%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–17%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kilwinning Rangers or draw

92%

Kilwinning Rangers or Glasgow University

88%

Draw or Glasgow University

20%

Winning margin

Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+

61%

Glasgow University wins by 2+

Team goals

Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals

96%

Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals

82%

Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals

60%

Glasgow University 1+ goals

61%

Glasgow University 2+ goals

25%

Glasgow University 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)

91%

Glasgow University (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kilwinning Rangers at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Glasgow University away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.20 + Glasgow University defence 4.17 → ÷2 → 3.19

Glasgow University attack 0.50 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kilwinning Rangers scores more

80%

level

12%

Glasgow University scores more

Kilwinning Rangers at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Kilwinning Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff