Kilwinning Rangers 0–1 Cowdenbeath: Result & Stats

Kilwinning Rangers

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cowdenbeath

M. Cunningham 80'

10/28/2023

FA Cup · 2nd RoundKilwinning Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kilwinning Rangers60%

×Draw21%

Cowdenbeath18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilwinning RangersExpected goals in this matchCowdenbeath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.00

Kilwinning Rangers

2.00

Cowdenbeath

1.00

Kilwinning Rangers creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.20

creates per match

0.60

1.40

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Kilwinning Rangers

2.20

Cowdenbeath

0.60

allows per match

Kilwinning Rangers

1.40

Cowdenbeath

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilwinning Rangers+0.00on par

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilwinning Rangers ↓

Cowdenbeath →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Kilwinning Rangers or draw

82%

Kilwinning Rangers or Cowdenbeath

79%

Draw or Cowdenbeath

40%

Winning margin

Kilwinning Rangers wins by 2+

36%

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+

Team goals

Kilwinning Rangers 1+ goals

86%

Kilwinning Rangers 2+ goals

59%

Kilwinning Rangers 3+ goals

32%

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals

63%

Cowdenbeath 2+ goals

26%

Cowdenbeath 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kilwinning Rangers (draw refunded)

77%

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kilwinning Rangers at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kilwinning Rangers attack 2.20 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cowdenbeath attack 0.60 + Kilwinning Rangers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kilwinning Rangers scores more

60%

level

21%

Cowdenbeath scores more

18%

Kilwinning Rangers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kilwinning Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

M. Cunningham← J. Jack

74'

B. Lewis← D. Mackin

80'

M. Cunningham

84'

J. McMahon← J. Stuart

88'

L. Berry← J. Docherty

89'

J. MacCalman← A. Semple

Kilwinning

Cowdenbeath

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Aitken

74'▲B. Lewis←▼D. Mackin

84'▲J. McMahon←▼J. Stuart

89'▲J. MacCalman←▼A. Semple

Kilwinning Rangers substitutes

10Lewis14McMahon15MacCalman19Duncan1Gordon5Caldwell

Manager: C. Elliot

64'▲M. Cunningham←▼J. Jack

88'▲L. Berry←▼J. Docherty

Cowdenbeath substitutes

14Cunningham16Berry15Duncan17Blair18Smith12Garcia