Kilo IF 0–2 MPS/Atletico Malmi: Result & Stats

Kilo IF

0 – 2

MPS/Atletico Malmi

3/29/2022

Suomen Cup · 2nd RoundPikkupekka Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kilo IF9%

×Draw12%

MPS/Atletico Malmi80%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilo IFExpected goals in this matchMPS/Atletico Malmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.50

Kilo IF

1.15

MPS/Atletico Malmi

3.50

MPS/Atletico Malmi creates 204% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.80

creates per match

4.00

3.00

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

Kilo IF

1.80

MPS/Atletico Malmi

4.00

allows per match

Kilo IF

3.00

MPS/Atletico Malmi

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilo IF+0.00on par

MPS/Atletico Malmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilo IF ↓

MPS/Atletico Malmi →

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–37%

0–46%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Kilo IF or draw

20%

Kilo IF or MPS/Atletico Malmi

88%

Draw or MPS/Atletico Malmi

91%

Winning margin

Kilo IF wins by 2+

MPS/Atletico Malmi wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Kilo IF 1+ goals

68%

Kilo IF 2+ goals

32%

Kilo IF 3+ goals

11%

MPS/Atletico Malmi 1+ goals

97%

MPS/Atletico Malmi 2+ goals

85%

MPS/Atletico Malmi 3+ goals

66%

Draw no bet

Kilo IF (draw refunded)

10%

MPS/Atletico Malmi (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kilo IF at home — creates 1.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

MPS/Atletico Malmi away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kilo IF attack 1.80 + MPS/Atletico Malmi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

MPS/Atletico Malmi attack 4.00 + Kilo IF defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 80%?"

Kilo IF scores more

level

12%

MPS/Atletico Malmi scores more

80%

MPS/Atletico Malmi at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "MPS/Atletico Malmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff