Kilmarnock 0–0 Raith Rovers: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raith Rovers

R. Mathurin 120+5' (pen)

I. Owen 120+4' (pen)

E. Ring 120+3' (pen)

J. Thomson 120+2' (pen)

R. Millen 120+4' (pen)

L. Vaughan 120+1' (pen)

7/14/2026

League Cup · Group StageRugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kilmarnock56%

×Draw23%

Raith Rovers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.07

Kilmarnock

1.86

Raith Rovers

1.07

Kilmarnock creates 74% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.86

creates per match

1.29

0.86

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.86

Raith Rovers

1.29

allows per match

Kilmarnock

0.86

Raith Rovers

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

78%

Kilmarnock or Raith Rovers

77%

Draw or Raith Rovers

44%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

32%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

84%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

55%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

28%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

66%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

29%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

72%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.86 + Raith Rovers defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.86

Raith Rovers attack 1.29 + Kilmarnock defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

56%

level

23%

Raith Rovers scores more

22%

Kilmarnock at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Brandon

30'

N. Clescenco

46'

R. Mathurin← N. Clescenco

46'

E. Ring← J. Brandon

66'

P. McMullan← D. Easton

70'

T. Lowery

77'

M. O'Hara← G. Kiltie

77'

I. Owen← T. John-Jules

81'

A. Lyall← J. Robertson

120+1'

J. HugillMissed penalty

120+1'

L. VaughanPenalty

120+2'

J. ThomsonPenalty

120+2'

C. TelferMissed penalty

120+3'

E. RingPenalty

120+3'

K. TurnerMissed penalty

120+4'

I. OwenPenalty

120+4'

R. MillenPenalty

120+5'

R. MathurinPenalty

Kilmarnock4-4-2

Raith4-1-3-2

11

▼

Robertson

10

Vaughan

23

▼

25

21

8

3

22

⚽

5

2

1

1

21

6

14

2

▼

Brandon

20

▼

Cleșcenco

22

Thomson

18

Lowery

11

▼

Kiltie

10

▼

John-Jule

9

Hugill

Manager: Neil McCann

46'▲R. Mathurin←▼N. Clescenco

46'▲E. Ring←▼J. Brandon

77'▲M. O'Hara←▼G. Kiltie

77'▲I. Owen←▼T. John-Jules

Kilmarnock substitutes

8Ring23Mathurin5O'Hara27Owen12Ferrie25Brown39Bowie7McKenzie42Rice

Manager: Paul Hanlon

66'▲P. McMullan←▼D. Easton

81'▲A. Lyall←▼J. Robertson

Raith Rovers substitutes

86McMullan88Lyall89Armstrong87Gibson