Kilmarnock 2–0 Queen's Park: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Queen's Park

K. Boyd 90+3' (pen)

E. Brophy 62'

7/28/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 8Rugby Park (Kilmarnock)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock52%

×Draw24%

Queen's Park24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchQueen's Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.10

Kilmarnock

1.71

Queen's Park

1.10

Kilmarnock creates 55% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.92

creates per match

1.29

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.92

Queen's Park

1.29

allows per match

Kilmarnock

0.92

Queen's Park

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Queen's Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

76%

Kilmarnock or Queen's Park

76%

Draw or Queen's Park

48%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

28%

Queen's Park wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

82%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

51%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

24%

Queen's Park 1+ goals

67%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

30%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

68%

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Queen's Park away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.92 + Queen's Park defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Queen's Park attack 1.29 + Kilmarnock defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

52%

level

24%

Queen's Park scores more

24%

Kilmarnock at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

69'

69'

70'

73'

C. McGrory← W. Mortimer

82'

B. Sharpe← S. Osadolor

90+1'

D. Thomas← C. Burke

90+3'

K. BoydPenalty

Kilmarnock

Queen's

1

5

6

3

2

4

7

8

11

▼

Mortimer

9

▼

Osadolor

10

▼

1

5

16

2

3

29

▼

Burke

6

Power

8

Dicker

9

⚽

Boyd

25

⚽

▼

Brophy

12

A

▼

Ndjoli

Manager: S. Clarke

69'▲J. Jones←▼M. Ndjoli

69'▲L. Erwin←▼E. Brophy

90+1'▲D. Thomas←▼C. Burke

Kilmarnock substitutes

11Jones19Erwin23Thomas10Kiltie13MacKay14Higgins18Waters

Manager: G. MacPherson

70'▲A. Martin←▼J. Peters

73'▲C. McGrory←▼W. Mortimer

82'▲B. Sharpe←▼S. Osadolor

Queen's Park substitutes

12Martin14McGrory16Sharpe20Dunlop18Kindlan15Foy17Nimmo