Kilmarnock 1–1 Morton: Result & Stats | League Cup

Kilmarnock

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Morton

7/20/2021

League Cup · Group Stage - 6BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock61%

×Draw21%

Morton18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchMorton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.03

Kilmarnock

2.06

Morton

1.03

Kilmarnock creates 100% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.92

creates per match

1.14

0.92

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.92

Morton

1.14

allows per match

Kilmarnock

0.92

Morton

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Morton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Morton →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

82%

Kilmarnock or Morton

79%

Draw or Morton

39%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

37%

Morton wins by 2+

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

87%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

61%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

34%

Morton 1+ goals

64%

Morton 2+ goals

28%

Morton 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

77%

Morton (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Morton away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.92 + Morton defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.06

Morton attack 1.14 + Kilmarnock defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

61%

level

21%

Morton scores more

18%

Kilmarnock at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff