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Kilmarnock vs Dumbarton — FA Cup 2019

Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
1/21/2023FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundThe BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kilmarnock55%
×Draw24%
Dumbarton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilmarnock
1.75
Dumbarton
1.00

Kilmarnock creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kilmarnock
2.50
Dumbarton
1.50

allows per match

Kilmarnock
0.50
Dumbarton
1.00

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw
78%
Kilmarnock or Dumbarton
76%
Draw or Dumbarton
45%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+
31%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals
83%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
52%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
25%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
63%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
26%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
72%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 2.50 + Dumbarton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Dumbarton attack 1.50 + Kilmarnock defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kilmarnock scores more
55%
level
24%
Dumbarton scores more
22%

Kilmarnock at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Kilmarnock 1–0 Dumbarton

Kilmarnock beat Dumbarton 1-0 in FA Cup on January 21, 2023.

The match was played at The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park in Kilmarnock.