Kilmarnock 2–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cove Rangers

2/10/2024

FA Cup · 5th RoundThe BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kilmarnock67%

×Draw20%

Cove Rangers14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.82

Kilmarnock

2.10

Cove Rangers

0.82

Kilmarnock creates 156% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.50

creates per match

1.14

0.50

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Kilmarnock

2.50

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Kilmarnock

0.50

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Cove Rangers →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

86%

Kilmarnock or Cove Rangers

80%

Draw or Cove Rangers

33%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

42%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

88%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

62%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

35%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

56%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

20%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

83%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 2.50 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Kilmarnock defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

67%

level

20%

Cove Rangers scores more

14%

Kilmarnock at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff