Kilmarnock 3–0 Annan Athletic: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Annan Athletic

7/15/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 1The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kilmarnock68%

×Draw18%

Annan Athletic14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchAnnan Athletic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.03

Kilmarnock

2.46

Annan Athletic

1.03

Kilmarnock creates 139% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.92

creates per match

1.15

0.92

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.92

Annan Athletic

1.15

allows per match

Kilmarnock

0.92

Annan Athletic

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Annan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Annan Athletic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

86%

Kilmarnock or Annan Athletic

82%

Draw or Annan Athletic

32%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

46%

Annan Athletic wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

91%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

70%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

44%

Annan Athletic 1+ goals

64%

Annan Athletic 2+ goals

28%

Annan Athletic 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

83%

Annan Athletic (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Annan Athletic away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.92 + Annan Athletic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Annan Athletic attack 1.15 + Kilmarnock defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

68%

level

18%

Annan Athletic scores more

14%

Kilmarnock at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff