Killester Donnycarney 0–2 Wexford: Result & Stats

Killester Donnycarney

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wexford

K. Manahan 67'

T. Dunphy 56'

8/29/2021

FAI Cup · 2nd RoundHadden Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Killester Donnycarney16%

×Draw20%

Wexford64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Killester DonnycarneyExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

2.15

Killester Donnycarney

0.97

Wexford

2.15

Wexford creates 122% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

0.33

creates per match

1.30

3.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Killester Donnycarney

0.33

Wexford

1.30

allows per match

Killester Donnycarney

3.00

Wexford

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Killester Donnycarney+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Killester Donnycarney ↓

Wexford →

0–04%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Killester Donnycarney or draw

36%

Killester Donnycarney or Wexford

80%

Draw or Wexford

84%

Winning margin

Killester Donnycarney wins by 2+

Wexford wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Killester Donnycarney 1+ goals

62%

Killester Donnycarney 2+ goals

25%

Killester Donnycarney 3+ goals

Wexford 1+ goals

88%

Wexford 2+ goals

63%

Wexford 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Killester Donnycarney (draw refunded)

20%

Wexford (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Killester Donnycarney at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Killester Donnycarney attack 0.33 + Wexford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Wexford attack 1.30 + Killester Donnycarney defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Killester Donnycarney scores more

16%

level

20%

Wexford scores more

64%

Wexford at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Wexford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

J. Connolly← J. Doherty

34'

S. Rogers

37'

E. Farrell

46'

P. Fox← T. Considine

46'

T. Dunphy← J. Connolly

55'

56'

64'

65'

65'

67'

77'

79'

83'

88'

89'

N. Leonard← K. Fitzsimons

90+1'

C. Giles

Killester

Wexford

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Howlett

55'▲J. Scully←▼S. Nolan

77'▲K. Moore←▼R. Dunne

88'▲D. Blake←▼S. Burgess

Killester Donnycarney substitutes

ScullyMooreBlakeWhelanMaddenKennaTaaffeWhiteKavanagh

Manager: I. Ryan

2'▲J. Connolly←▼J. Doherty

46'▲P. Fox←▼T. Considine

46'▲T. Dunphy←▼J. Connolly

83'▲C. Kelly←▼P. Cleary

89'▲N. Leonard←▼K. Fitzsimons

Wexford substitutes

ConnollyFoxDunphyKellyLeonardYousifPorterMartinScanlon