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Killester Donnycarney vs Bohemians — FAI Cup 2026

Killester Donnycarney
Killester Donnycarney
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Bohemians
Bohemians
C. Whelan 79', 63' (pen), 18' (pen)
R. Brennan 67'
C. Parsons 37'
M. Strods 19', 8'
7/18/2025FAI CupFAI Cup · 2nd RoundDalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Killester Donnycarney3%
×Draw9%
Bohemians87%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Killester Donnycarney
0.45
Bohemians
3.00

Bohemians creates 567% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Killester Donnycarney
0.33
Bohemians
3.00

allows per match

Killester Donnycarney
3.00
Bohemians
0.56

finishing

Killester Donnycarney+0.00on par
Bohemians+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Killester Donnycarney ↓

Bohemians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–110%
0–215%
0–315%
0–411%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Killester Donnycarney or draw
13%
Killester Donnycarney or Bohemians
91%
Draw or Bohemians
97%

Winning margin

Killester Donnycarney wins by 2+
1%
Bohemians wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

Killester Donnycarney 1+ goals
36%
Killester Donnycarney 2+ goals
8%
Killester Donnycarney 3+ goals
1%
Bohemians 1+ goals
95%
Bohemians 2+ goals
79%
Bohemians 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Killester Donnycarney (draw refunded)
4%
Bohemians (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Killester Donnycarney at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Bohemians away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Killester Donnycarney attack 0.33 + Bohemians defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.45

Bohemians attack 3.00 + Killester Donnycarney defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 87%?"

Killester Donnycarney scores more
3%
level
9%
Bohemians scores more
87%

Bohemians at 87% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 87% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
M. Strods
18'
C. WhelanPenalty
19'
M. Strods
37'
C. Parsons
63'
C. WhelanPenalty
67'
R. Brennan
79'
C. Whelan
Killester
Bohemians
G. Howlett
Manager: G. Howlett
Alan Reynolds
Manager: Alan Reynolds

Match Recap: Killester Donnycarney vs Bohemians

Bohemians beat Killester Donnycarney 7-0 in FAI Cup on July 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Strods (8', 19'), C. Whelan (18' pen, 63' pen, 79'), C. Parsons (37'), R. Brennan (67').

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.