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Killas W vs FBC Melgar W — Liga Women 2026

Killas W
Killas W
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FBC Melgar W
FBC Melgar W
5/21/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Killas W44%
×Draw23%
FBC Melgar W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Killas W
1.72
FBC Melgar W
1.47

Killas W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Killas W
0.60
FBC Melgar W
1.33

allows per match

Killas W
1.60
FBC Melgar W
2.83

finishing

Killas W+0.00on par
FBC Melgar W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Killas W ↓

FBC Melgar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Killas W or draw
67%
Killas W or FBC Melgar W
77%
Draw or FBC Melgar W
56%

Winning margin

Killas W wins by 2+
23%
FBC Melgar W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Killas W 1+ goals
82%
Killas W 2+ goals
51%
Killas W 3+ goals
25%
FBC Melgar W 1+ goals
77%
FBC Melgar W 2+ goals
43%
FBC Melgar W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Killas W (draw refunded)
57%
FBC Melgar W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Killas W at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

FBC Melgar W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Killas W attack 0.60 + FBC Melgar W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

FBC Melgar W attack 1.33 + Killas W defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Killas W scores more
44%
level
23%
FBC Melgar W scores more
33%

Killas W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Killas W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: Killas W 0–2 FBC Melgar W

FBC Melgar W beat Killas W 2-0 in Liga Women on May 21, 2026.