Kilis Belediyespor 1–4 Osmanlispor: Result & Stats

Kilis Belediyespor

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Osmanlispor

9/26/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKilis 7 Aralık Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kilis Belediyespor31%

×Draw23%

Osmanlispor45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilis BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchOsmanlispor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.75

Kilis Belediyespor

1.42

Osmanlispor

1.75

Osmanlispor creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.00

creates per match

1.83

1.67

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Kilis Belediyespor

1.00

Osmanlispor

1.83

allows per match

Kilis Belediyespor

1.67

Osmanlispor

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilis Belediyespor+0.00on par

Osmanlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilis Belediyespor ↓

Osmanlispor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kilis Belediyespor or draw

55%

Kilis Belediyespor or Osmanlispor

77%

Draw or Osmanlispor

69%

Winning margin

Kilis Belediyespor wins by 2+

14%

Osmanlispor wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kilis Belediyespor 1+ goals

76%

Kilis Belediyespor 2+ goals

41%

Kilis Belediyespor 3+ goals

17%

Osmanlispor 1+ goals

83%

Osmanlispor 2+ goals

52%

Osmanlispor 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Kilis Belediyespor (draw refunded)

41%

Osmanlispor (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilis Belediyespor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Osmanlispor away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilis Belediyespor attack 1.00 + Osmanlispor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Osmanlispor attack 1.83 + Kilis Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kilis Belediyespor scores more

31%

level

23%

Osmanlispor scores more

45%

Osmanlispor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Osmanlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff