Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kilis Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor — League #553 2026

Kilis Belediyespor
Kilis Belediyespor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Karaköprü Belediyespor
Karaköprü Belediyespor
3/24/2026League #553League #553 · Group 2 - 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kilis Belediyespor54%
×Draw26%
Karaköprü Belediyespor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilis Belediyespor
1.50
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.80

Kilis Belediyespor creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kilis Belediyespor
1.33
Karaköprü Belediyespor
0.93

allows per match

Kilis Belediyespor
0.67
Karaköprü Belediyespor
1.67

finishing

Kilis Belediyespor+0.00on par
Karaköprü Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilis Belediyespor ↓

Karaköprü Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kilis Belediyespor or draw
80%
Kilis Belediyespor or Karaköprü Belediyespor
74%
Draw or Karaköprü Belediyespor
46%

Winning margin

Kilis Belediyespor wins by 2+
28%
Karaköprü Belediyespor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kilis Belediyespor 1+ goals
78%
Kilis Belediyespor 2+ goals
44%
Kilis Belediyespor 3+ goals
19%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 1+ goals
55%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 2+ goals
19%
Karaköprü Belediyespor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kilis Belediyespor (draw refunded)
73%
Karaköprü Belediyespor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilis Belediyespor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Karaköprü Belediyespor away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilis Belediyespor attack 1.33 + Karaköprü Belediyespor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Karaköprü Belediyespor attack 0.93 + Kilis Belediyespor defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kilis Belediyespor scores more
54%
level
26%
Karaköprü Belediyespor scores more
20%

Kilis Belediyespor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kilis Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kilis Belediyespor vs Karaköprü Belediyespor

Kilis Belediyespor beat Karaköprü Belediyespor 2-0 in League #553 on March 24, 2026.