Kilia Kiel vs Weiche Flensburg

Kilia Kiel

CANC

18:00

Weiche Flensburg

1/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kilia Kiel26%

×Draw24%

Weiche Flensburg49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kilia KielExpected goals in this matchWeiche Flensburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.65

Kilia Kiel

1.13

Weiche Flensburg

1.65

Weiche Flensburg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

1.29

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kilia Kiel

1.25

Weiche Flensburg

1.29

allows per match

Kilia Kiel

2.00

Weiche Flensburg

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilia Kiel+0.00on par

Weiche Flensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilia Kiel ↓

Weiche Flensburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Kilia Kiel or draw

51%

Kilia Kiel or Weiche Flensburg

76%

Draw or Weiche Flensburg

74%

Winning margin

Kilia Kiel wins by 2+

10%

Weiche Flensburg wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kilia Kiel 1+ goals

68%

Kilia Kiel 2+ goals

31%

Kilia Kiel 3+ goals

11%

Weiche Flensburg 1+ goals

81%

Weiche Flensburg 2+ goals

49%

Weiche Flensburg 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kilia Kiel (draw refunded)

35%

Weiche Flensburg (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilia Kiel at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Weiche Flensburg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilia Kiel attack 1.25 + Weiche Flensburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Weiche Flensburg attack 1.29 + Kilia Kiel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kilia Kiel scores more

26%

level

24%

Weiche Flensburg scores more

49%

Weiche Flensburg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Weiche Flensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff