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Kilb vs Mannersdorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Kilb
Kilb
CANC
14:00
Mannersdorf
Mannersdorf
3/7/2021Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 16Waldstadion Kilb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kilb70%
×Draw17%
Mannersdorf13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilb
2.50
Mannersdorf
1.00

Kilb creates 150% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 41 away

creates per match

Kilb
1.78
Mannersdorf
0.56

allows per match

Kilb
1.44
Mannersdorf
3.22

finishing

Kilb+0.00on par
Mannersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilb ↓

Mannersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kilb or draw
87%
Kilb or Mannersdorf
83%
Draw or Mannersdorf
30%

Winning margin

Kilb wins by 2+
47%
Mannersdorf wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kilb 1+ goals
92%
Kilb 2+ goals
71%
Kilb 3+ goals
45%
Mannersdorf 1+ goals
63%
Mannersdorf 2+ goals
26%
Mannersdorf 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kilb (draw refunded)
84%
Mannersdorf (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilb at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

Mannersdorf away — creates 0.56, concedes 3.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilb attack 1.78 + Mannersdorf defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.50

Mannersdorf attack 0.56 + Kilb defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kilb scores more
70%
level
17%
Mannersdorf scores more
13%

Kilb at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kilb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kilb vs Mannersdorf — Match Preview

Kilb face Mannersdorf on March 7, 2021 in this Landesliga - Niederosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kilb host Mannersdorf at Waldstadion Kilb.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.