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Kilb vs Gaflenz — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Kilb
Kilb
FT
4 – 0
Gaflenz
Gaflenz
9/27/2019Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 9Waldstadion Kilb

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kilb51%
×Draw22%
Gaflenz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kilb
1.96
Gaflenz
1.36

Kilb creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kilb
1.78
Gaflenz
1.29

allows per match

Kilb
1.44
Gaflenz
2.14

finishing

Kilb+0.00on par
Gaflenz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilb ↓

Gaflenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kilb or draw
73%
Kilb or Gaflenz
78%
Draw or Gaflenz
49%

Winning margin

Kilb wins by 2+
29%
Gaflenz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kilb 1+ goals
86%
Kilb 2+ goals
58%
Kilb 3+ goals
31%
Gaflenz 1+ goals
74%
Gaflenz 2+ goals
39%
Gaflenz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kilb (draw refunded)
66%
Gaflenz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilb at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.44 · 82 matches

Gaflenz away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilb attack 1.78 + Gaflenz defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.96

Gaflenz attack 1.29 + Kilb defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kilb scores more
51%
level
22%
Gaflenz scores more
27%

Kilb at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kilb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kilb vs Gaflenz

Kilb beat Gaflenz 4-0 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Waldstadion Kilb in Kilb.