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KIL / Hemne W vs TIL 2020 W — 1. Division Women 2022

KIL / Hemne W
KIL / Hemne W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
TIL 2020 W
TIL 2020 W
6/9/20241. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 9Trøndelag Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

KIL / Hemne W36%
×Draw25%
TIL 2020 W39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KIL / Hemne W
1.37
TIL 2020 W
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 49 away

creates per match

KIL / Hemne W
1.31
TIL 2020 W
1.61

allows per match

KIL / Hemne W
1.27
TIL 2020 W
1.43

finishing

KIL / Hemne W+0.00on par
TIL 2020 W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KIL / Hemne W ↓

TIL 2020 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

KIL / Hemne W or draw
61%
KIL / Hemne W or TIL 2020 W
75%
Draw or TIL 2020 W
64%

Winning margin

KIL / Hemne W wins by 2+
16%
TIL 2020 W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

KIL / Hemne W 1+ goals
75%
KIL / Hemne W 2+ goals
40%
KIL / Hemne W 3+ goals
16%
TIL 2020 W 1+ goals
76%
TIL 2020 W 2+ goals
42%
TIL 2020 W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KIL / Hemne W (draw refunded)
48%
TIL 2020 W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KIL / Hemne W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

TIL 2020 W away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KIL / Hemne W attack 1.31 + TIL 2020 W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

TIL 2020 W attack 1.61 + KIL / Hemne W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KIL / Hemne W scores more
36%
level
25%
TIL 2020 W scores more
39%

TIL 2020 W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TIL 2020 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KIL / Hemne W vs TIL 2020 W

TIL 2020 W beat KIL / Hemne W 4-0 in 1. Division Women on June 9, 2024.

The match was played at Trøndelag Sparebank Arena in Kyrksæterøra.