Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

KIL / Hemne W vs Start W — 1. Division Women 2022

KIL / Hemne W
KIL / Hemne W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Start W
Start W
6/22/20251. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 11Trøndelag Sparebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KIL / Hemne W39%
×Draw26%
Start W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KIL / Hemne W
1.38
Start W
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 16 away

creates per match

KIL / Hemne W
1.31
Start W
1.31

allows per match

KIL / Hemne W
1.27
Start W
1.44

finishing

KIL / Hemne W+0.00on par
Start W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KIL / Hemne W ↓

Start W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

KIL / Hemne W or draw
65%
KIL / Hemne W or Start W
74%
Draw or Start W
61%

Winning margin

KIL / Hemne W wins by 2+
18%
Start W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

KIL / Hemne W 1+ goals
75%
KIL / Hemne W 2+ goals
40%
KIL / Hemne W 3+ goals
16%
Start W 1+ goals
72%
Start W 2+ goals
37%
Start W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

KIL / Hemne W (draw refunded)
53%
Start W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KIL / Hemne W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Start W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KIL / Hemne W attack 1.31 + Start W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Start W attack 1.31 + KIL / Hemne W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

KIL / Hemne W scores more
39%
level
26%
Start W scores more
35%

KIL / Hemne W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "KIL / Hemne W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division Women: KIL / Hemne W 0–0 Start W

KIL / Hemne W and Start W drew 0-0 in 1. Division Women on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Trøndelag Sparebank Arena in Kyrksæterøra.