Kikinda 1–1 Zeleznicar Inđija: Result & Stats

Kikinda

FT

1 – 1

Zeleznicar Inđija

6/1/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kikinda36%

×Draw28%

Zeleznicar Inđija37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KikindaExpected goals in this matchZeleznicar Inđija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.21

Kikinda

1.19

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

1.33

creates per match

1.40

1.03

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Kikinda

1.33

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.40

allows per match

Kikinda

1.03

Zeleznicar Inđija

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

Zeleznicar Inđija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw

63%

Kikinda or Zeleznicar Inđija

72%

Draw or Zeleznicar Inđija

64%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+

15%

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals

70%

Kikinda 2+ goals

33%

Kikinda 3+ goals

12%

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals

70%

Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals

34%

Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)

49%

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Zeleznicar Inđija away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 1.40 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kikinda scores more

36%

level

28%

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more

37%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff