Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kikinda vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kikinda
Kikinda
FT
0 – 3
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
8/28/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kikinda51%
×Draw25%
Stari Grad25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kikinda
1.64
Stari Grad
1.06

Kikinda creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

creates per match

Kikinda
1.33
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Kikinda
1.03
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw
75%
Kikinda or Stari Grad
75%
Draw or Stari Grad
49%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+
27%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals
81%
Kikinda 2+ goals
49%
Kikinda 3+ goals
23%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
65%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
29%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)
67%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kikinda scores more
51%
level
25%
Stari Grad scores more
25%

Kikinda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kikinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kikinda vs Stari Grad

Stari Grad beat Kikinda 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kikinda.