Kikinda 2–1 Radnički Sombor: Result & Stats

Kikinda

FT

2 – 1

Radnički Sombor

5/7/2022

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 26Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Kikinda42%

×Draw26%

Radnički Sombor31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KikindaExpected goals in this matchRadnički Sombor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Kikinda

1.40

Radnički Sombor

1.16

Kikinda creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 49 away

1.33

creates per match

1.29

1.03

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kikinda

1.33

Radnički Sombor

1.29

allows per match

Kikinda

1.03

Radnički Sombor

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par

Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

Radnički Sombor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw

69%

Kikinda or Radnički Sombor

74%

Draw or Radnički Sombor

58%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+

20%

Radnički Sombor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals

75%

Kikinda 2+ goals

41%

Kikinda 3+ goals

17%

Radnički Sombor 1+ goals

69%

Radnički Sombor 2+ goals

32%

Radnički Sombor 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)

58%

Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kikinda scores more

42%

level

26%

Radnički Sombor scores more

31%

Kikinda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kikinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff