Kikinda 1–1 Omladinac NB: Result & Stats

Kikinda

FT

1 – 1

Omladinac NB

9/14/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kikinda40%

×Draw28%

Omladinac NB32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KikindaExpected goals in this matchOmladinac NB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.06

Kikinda

1.22

Omladinac NB

1.06

Kikinda creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 103 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.03

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Kikinda

1.33

Omladinac NB

1.09

allows per match

Kikinda

1.03

Omladinac NB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par

Omladinac NB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

Omladinac NB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw

68%

Kikinda or Omladinac NB

72%

Draw or Omladinac NB

60%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+

17%

Omladinac NB wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals

70%

Kikinda 2+ goals

34%

Kikinda 3+ goals

12%

Omladinac NB 1+ goals

65%

Omladinac NB 2+ goals

29%

Omladinac NB 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)

56%

Omladinac NB (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Omladinac NB away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + Omladinac NB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Omladinac NB attack 1.09 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kikinda scores more

40%

level

28%

Omladinac NB scores more

32%

Kikinda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kikinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff