Kikinda 4–0 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova: Result & Stats

Kikinda

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

8/26/2023

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kikinda50%

×Draw25%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KikindaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Stara Pazova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.03

Kikinda

1.56

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

Kikinda creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 78 away

1.33

creates per match

1.03

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Kikinda

1.33

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.03

allows per match

Kikinda

1.03

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw

75%

Kikinda or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

75%

Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

50%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+

26%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals

79%

Kikinda 2+ goals

46%

Kikinda 3+ goals

21%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

64%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

28%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)

66%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kikinda scores more

50%

level

25%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

25%

Kikinda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kikinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff