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Kikinda vs FK Becej — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kikinda
Kikinda
FT
0 – 0
FK Becej
FK Becej
3/9/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 17Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kikinda56%
×Draw22%
FK Becej21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kikinda
1.91
FK Becej
1.09

Kikinda creates 75% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 88 away

creates per match

Kikinda
1.33
FK Becej
1.16

allows per match

Kikinda
1.03
FK Becej
2.49

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw
79%
Kikinda or FK Becej
78%
Draw or FK Becej
44%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+
33%
FK Becej wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals
85%
Kikinda 2+ goals
57%
Kikinda 3+ goals
30%
FK Becej 1+ goals
66%
FK Becej 2+ goals
30%
FK Becej 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)
72%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.91

FK Becej attack 1.16 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kikinda scores more
56%
level
22%
FK Becej scores more
21%

Kikinda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kikinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kikinda vs FK Becej

Kikinda and FK Becej drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kikinda.