Kikinda 2–1 1. Maj Ruma: Result & Stats

Kikinda

FT

2 – 1

1. Maj Ruma

10/15/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Kikinda48%

×Draw26%

1. Maj Ruma26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KikindaExpected goals in this match1. Maj Ruma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Kikinda

1.52

1. Maj Ruma

1.04

Kikinda creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 72 away

1.33

creates per match

1.06

1.03

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Kikinda

1.33

1. Maj Ruma

1.06

allows per match

Kikinda

1.03

1. Maj Ruma

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kikinda+0.00on par

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kikinda ↓

1. Maj Ruma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kikinda or draw

74%

Kikinda or 1. Maj Ruma

74%

Draw or 1. Maj Ruma

52%

Winning margin

Kikinda wins by 2+

24%

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kikinda 1+ goals

78%

Kikinda 2+ goals

45%

Kikinda 3+ goals

20%

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

65%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

28%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Kikinda (draw refunded)

65%

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kikinda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kikinda attack 1.33 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Kikinda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kikinda scores more

48%

level

26%

1. Maj Ruma scores more

26%

Kikinda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kikinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff