Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kiisto vs OLS — Suomen Cup 2018

Kiisto
Kiisto
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
OLS
OLS
4/15/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kiisto2%
×Draw5%
OLS93%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiisto
0.55
OLS
4.28

OLS creates 678% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kiisto
0.60
OLS
4.75

allows per match

Kiisto
3.80
OLS
0.50

finishing

Kiisto+0.00on par
OLS+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiisto ↓

OLS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–29%
0–312%
0–413%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (13%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
66%34%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Kiisto or draw
7%
Kiisto or OLS
95%
Draw or OLS
98%

Winning margin

Kiisto wins by 2+
0%
OLS wins by 2+
83%

Team goals

Kiisto 1+ goals
42%
Kiisto 2+ goals
11%
Kiisto 3+ goals
2%
OLS 1+ goals
98%
OLS 2+ goals
91%
OLS 3+ goals
77%

Draw no bet

Kiisto (draw refunded)
2%
OLS (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiisto at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

OLS away — creates 4.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiisto attack 0.60 + OLS defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

OLS attack 4.75 + Kiisto defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 4.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Kiisto scores more
2%
level
5%
OLS scores more
93%

OLS at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "OLS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kiisto vs OLS

OLS beat Kiisto 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 15, 2025.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.