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Kiisto vs Lahti — Suomen Cup 2018

Kiisto
Kiisto
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Lahti
Lahti
3/16/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 8th FinalsElisa Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kiisto7%
×Draw12%
Lahti81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiisto
0.91
Lahti
3.22

Lahti creates 254% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kiisto
0.60
Lahti
2.65

allows per match

Kiisto
3.80
Lahti
1.22

finishing

Kiisto+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiisto ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kiisto or draw
19%
Kiisto or Lahti
88%
Draw or Lahti
93%

Winning margin

Kiisto wins by 2+
2%
Lahti wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Kiisto 1+ goals
60%
Kiisto 2+ goals
23%
Kiisto 3+ goals
6%
Lahti 1+ goals
96%
Lahti 2+ goals
82%
Lahti 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Kiisto (draw refunded)
8%
Lahti (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiisto at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

Lahti away — creates 2.65, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiisto attack 0.60 + Lahti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Lahti attack 2.65 + Kiisto defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Kiisto scores more
7%
level
12%
Lahti scores more
81%

Lahti at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kiisto 0 – 5 Lahti

Lahti beat Kiisto 5-0 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Elisa Stadion in Vaasa.